I haven’t written in a while and I’m not really sure that I’ve written a NBA article this year. The main reason is I’ve covered a lot of my basic fundamentals.
I have a book and if you haven’t read it, it’s probably cheaper than what you spend in a night playing DFS so you might as well check it out.
I spent a decent amount of money to go to a boot camp and the only thing I really took out of it was that the pros use pinnaclesports.com for their Vegas odds. That actually helped me a lot and was worth the price of admission alone because I use it every day.
So even if you only get one thing out of my $5 book it will be worth the price of admission.
The State of the DFS Advice Sites
I’m going to give you my honest opinion, people are running out of things to write and are writing things just for the sake of writing things.
I’m reading all these articles on sites talking about this and that and then they break down the numbers, and guys in certain situations are scoring 2.2 more fantasy points and all other minor details.
Well things are getting too complicated making the DFS lineup creation process too complicated.
There is a well known DFS author who really likes to show his audience graphs and charts.
Take a deep look into those graphs and charts and ask yourself this question, “does this really matter?”
Does a chart of a player’s shot selection over his last ten games really impact whether or not you are going to use that player?
If you are thinking about using Andre Drummond are you going to look at where he’s been shooting in his last ten games?
A Little More Honesty
Here is the truth about the NBA, nothing is for sure and it’s really frustrating.
Daily Fantasy Boot Camp was the biggest waste of money and ended up costing me hours of my time and thousands of dollars.
The articles had a lot to do about nothing and I changed players I liked for other guys because Boot Camp’s projections told me some other guy was prone to have a better game and it didn’t pan out most of the time.
Other Shortcomings of Advice Sites
The other thing that noticed is that you can never really use a site’s projections when it comes to minutes played.
I swore by this and I can’t even tell you how many times I took the value play who was projected for 26 minutes and he only played 15.
Nobody can possibly know what a coach is thinking for a game. There can be all sorts of data telling you that so and so is going to do this, but if a coach is pissed at a player for something and decides to only play him 15 minutes a night, there isn’t going to be any data for that.
Here’s a Handy Tip!
Here is something I learned this year and if you only get one thing out of this article it’s this.
NEVER FADE PLAYERS BECAUSE OF A POTENTIAL BLOWOUT.
That’s a chart I’d like to see, how many teams cover the spread and then some. I think there was about a 5 game stretch where the Thunder were 12-15 point favorites and people tell you “be wary of the blowout, go with a safer play.”
Then the game was really close and Westbrook and Durant played the whole game. There was one game the Thunder actually lost when they were favored by 13.
The job of a lot of these sites out there is to give you content almost every day and truth be told, there just isn’t enough content to write about.
Don’t get caught up in these insane theories people are coming up with just so they can write an article.
Be Wary of Projection Only Sites
Projections are the worse and don’t pay a site just for projections.
I was joking with Richard that we should make our own projections and it wouldn’t’ be that hard.
Just make the studs hover around 50 points and and the middle guys around 25. I spent hours importing custom projections from paid sites and installing them into Fantasy Cruncher for the best optimal team and lost.
I even adjusted the projections as news broke throughout the day which was a tedious process.
If you swear by projections then at least use FantasyLabs because they are the only site that actually adjusts the projections for you.
All the other sites (that you pay for!) want you to make the adjustments yourself, and that’s a crap load of work and time you have to spend.
In conclusion, there is no site that will make you rich playing DFS.
It just isn’t that easy, and truth be told you are only making them rich by paying for their stuff.
How many times have you won where you just threw a lineup together last minute?
Stick to the basics because as much as these people want you to think they have some scientific formula to DFS success, they are wrong.
Ask yourself if things are really relevant, or if someone is writing something just to write something.
Better yet, avoid sites that recommend like 20 plus players a night then brag about the plays they got right while ignoring the vast majority they got wrong.
As always, trust your gut!