One thing that is really easy to do in DFS is fall in love with superstars in certain matchups. We don’t care how much they cost we just know that if they aren’t in our lineup we are going to lose. Sometimes it’s more than one, sometimes its two and sometimes even three superstars!
Has this ever happened to you? You feel great because you were able to fit Harden, Paul, and Curry on your team but you hate the rest of your team. But the theory is those three players will score you over 150 fantasy points so it is okay if the other guys underperform.
This is a common mistake in DFS because having three superstars that cost over 3/6 of your salary cap is only acceptable when you have three minimum priced players that are almost guaranteed to see starter minutes.
As much as I hate to admit it, I fell victim to this on my last NBA outing! I had a team that was awesome and had three players I really liked that took half my salary cap. At the time it was okay because I had some lower priced players that were going to see a lot of minutes and guess what happened five minutes before lineups locked. Lance Thomas ($3500) was out for personal reasons and Draymond Green was going to play when he was doubtful.
I made the mistake of keeping my three superstars in and working around my scrubs when it should have been the other way around. There wasn’t enough value for me to keep all three superstars and I ended up replacing a lower/mid range player with an even cheaper player (who scored 15 fantasy points) and used the money I saved to replace Thomas with a player that was a little more, even though he only plays 20 minutes (Rasul Butler who score 12.5 fantasy points).
Nevertheless, to make things worse James Harden and Chris Paul had sub-par games and didn’t come close to reaching value! Granted Vucevic exceeded value but it wasn’t even close enough to salvage my team.
Even if Harden and Paul met value I don’t think my team would have cashed, and looking back here is what I should have done. Harden was almost 12k and was playing in a back to back and there was other SG’s that were half his price in great match ups.
Swapping him out with one of these other players would have saved almost 6 grand which would have allowed me to upgrade three positions by 2k each. All of a sudden I could have had two $5900 SF and $7500 PF instead of two $3900 SF and a $5500 PF.
Let’s say Harden had one of his 60 point games like he had the night before and my replacement had a 30 points game. I only bring this up because this is how you need to think when you are changing your team like this. Now you need to think “can the three guys I can fit in my LU without Harden make up 30 fantasy points?”
But we are so fascinated with the big name players because that’s what drives the sport. No one talks about the cheap players on major media outlets and we tend to think we need the high end players when the truth is the cheaper guys are the ones that will win us money.
It’s great when there are awesome value players, but when there isn’t you can’t force it because you need the superstars to have 80 fantasy point games which don’t come that easy regardless of the match up.