Strategies for Creating GPP Lineups to Increase Your Chance of Winning
If you play GPP’s then you know the key to success is being able to be different.
Those “what if” scenarios that make you feel very uncomfortable when you click a player’s name.
But the truth is, if you didn’t feel this way then you probably won’t win anything big.
When the name of the game is win or go home, you need to do a few crazy things when you’re competing against tens of thousands of other lineups.
I’m going to discuss a couple of things which may help you become a better tournament player so I highly suggest you try some these methods in a cheap big field tournament.
So, Let’s Talk GPP Strategy
I’ve written about this in the past a few times before but it’s still true.
Don’t be afraid to leave money on the table!
Sometimes it’s easy to forget because before you hit “enter lineup” you will often have this feeling of “guilt” or “somethings really wrong”.
But it’s okay to leave some money on the table and the way I think of it is “the more money on the table, the less likely someone has this exact lineup”.
Even I fell victim to this a few weeks ago when I was playing a tournament.
I had Cousins in at center but I really like Marc Gasol.
The problem was if I went with Gasol I had about 2k left over on FanDuel.
So I decided I didn’t want to change my value plays and I just went with Cousins who had a decent matchup.
At the end of the games, Gasol outscored Cousins by about 18 FanDuel points and that was the difference between my okay cash and winning the whole thing.
Nothing is a “sure thing” in sports and that’s why we love it.
But it’s very possible for high scoring guys to have a horrible game.
If there is a cheaper play that you like on a raw point standpoint, take a chance on them.
Sometimes when there is a lot of value, it’s often suggested that you go stars and scrubs.
While most of the time this is right (all the time this is right in cash games), there are times that the value plays will outscores some of the regular starters in other games.
So, if there is a value play because that player is going to see 30 minutes, treat them like a 6k player instead of a 3.5k player.
Remember The Mid-Priced Players
For most slates, people are looking for the top value players and the top expensive players.
The truth is, if there is a popular value play, that player isn’t going to win you a tournament.
Same can be said with the expensive players because for the most part, the top expensive player and cheap player will be high owned.
This is where people get very confused and make mistakes when they build their GPP lineups.
A lot of people think since they are going to be high owned, you should avoid them.
Why would you avoid a min priced point guard who is going to see 35 minutes?
Odds are you aren’t going to find a better value on the board so you need that play.
Instead, also start searching for the mid-priced plays that will be low owned and have a great chance to outperform their salary.
Just the other night, Avery Bradley was ruled out and Marcus Smart took over for him and was going to see about 35-40 minutes.
Instead of fading Smart (who was 53% owned,) I looked for other ways to make my lineup different.
I saw I had enough to sub Jae Crowder for Wilson Chandler because they were about the same price. I figured more people would be on Crowder even though Chandler was playing in a game that had a higher total against the Thunder.
Wilson was 8% owned and Crowder was 40% and Wilson outscored Crowder by 22.
Granted Westbrook was 87% owned, Anthony Davis was 65% (and I already mentioned Smart was 53%), it was Wilson (a mid priced player) that helped me get a top ten finish.
Thinking Outside The Box
There is a difference between being crazy and sounding crazy.
Being crazy (in DFS) would be playing guys who aren’t playing more than their 18 minutes, and there is no indication they are going to have a different role in that game.
Sounding crazy is more of the “what if” scenario which is a lot more probable to happen.
A great example of this is when Andre Drummond’s back up Aaron Baynes was listed out, meaning that Boban Marjanovic was the only back up.
The pistons were playing a banged up Hornets team that was getting killed by big men all week.
Everyone was on Drummond and he was the clear top center of the slate.
But “what if” Drummond showed signs of his old self and got into foul trouble?
Boban was already going to see about 15-20 minutes but what if Drummond has to sit?
This would be a crazy assumption to be on Boban if Baynes wasn’t ruled out, but with him gone he would get tons of time in a great match up.
That’s what happened and Boban who was .01% in DraftKings GPP had 15 points, 19 rebounds and a block for 3k.
The Exposure Debate
There are a few theories out there when it comes to exposure and I’ve heard all of it.
The main one debated is “put a player on all your teams, or none of your teams”.
Mainly the thought here is if the play pans out, you’re in great shape if you are heavier than the field.
Same goes for a fade if a player has a bad game and is highly owned.
There are times (like as I write this) that I will go all-in on players.
Right now, there is a three game early only slate and I put Michael Beasley on all my teams.
I thought he would be a top value play and I wanted to be higher than the field.
Well I put him on all 8 of my teams and he’s 8% owned at the minimum price.
He is sitting at 16 fantasy points at half where he needs 18 to meet value.
Now has this come back to bite me before, of course!
I’ve went all in on a punt before and figured I’d make my team different somewhere else just to have that punt finish with 12 fantasy points (I’m looking at you Dion Waiters).
This is what I love about DFS, there is always another day if you have days like that.
The issue I have with a 50% exposure limit on a player is I’m killing half my lineups if a player does really good or bad.
Play around with a few of these ideas and see how it works.
Remember, if you aren’t winning tournaments and have been playing for a while, your way isn’t working.
You need to be open to new suggestions.