One thing I like to do when I’m making rosters each week is compare games and scoring.
What I mean by this is I like to try and predict what kind of game a player is going to have and calculate that into fantasy points.
One of the most overlooked things in DFS is the thought that a QB is like a pitcher.
In fantasy baseball you always take the best pitcher in cash games because they will always get you points.
A lot of people refer to the QB as the “pitcher on your football team” and I would actually argue against this argument and here’s why.
First, I get the comparison because both positions touch the ball the most and give us a bigger sample size to make our projections.
With batters in baseball you ideally get 4 at bats and sometimes five.
In football you give position players their projection based on the amount of touches (targets and carries) they have.
Outlining My Argument
But what I like to do is compare fantasy points to other positions.
The biggest difference between the QB and pitcher is: the pitcher is often the highest scoring player on your team and your QB isn’t.
While your QB can be the highest scoring player on your team, it isn’t going to happen as often compared to your pitcher being the highest scoring player.
The reason is pretty simple, QB’s get the most stats, but their stats are worth less than the other position players.
When I say “I like to compare fantasy points to other positions”, it means I like to compare what it takes a QB to get X amount of points compared to a WR or RB.
For a QB to get ten points he needs to throw for 150 yards and a touchdown.
Now a WR or a running back (on a full PPR site) can get ten points on a 30 yard TD reception (1 point for the catch, 3 points for the yardage and 6 points for the TD).
Unless a QB is mobile and can run, his ceiling for a single drive would be 8 points. And that’s if he goes the length of the field and throws a touchdown pass.
To put things into perspective, a WR who catches three passes for 30 yards gets 6 fantasy points which is almost the ceiling of the QB on any given drive (considering most teams start each drive on the 20 or better).
A More Detailed Look At The Fantasy Stats
Now given these circumstances, which of the two hypothetical situations is more plausible?
You would have to say it’s the WR.
So that’s one reason I like saving money on a QB for a better WR who has a higher ceiling and floor.
The reason I like to find good values for QB is because you need to realistically think of how much less they will perform in comparison to a top QB.
Ideally, I consider an elite game for a QB to be 300 yards and 3 touchdowns which comes to 24 fantasy points.
No one is going to complain with that kind of an outcome from their QB regardless of that QB’s price.
Now if you go cheap, what kind of a game do you expect from you lesser QB?
Let’s say he gets 225 and 2 touchdowns which is a serviceable game. That game would accumulate 17 fantasy points. This is how you have to think of it!
Questions To Ask Yourself
With the money you save going with a cheaper QB, can you upgrade a player to make up for that 7 fantasy points?
Can you replace a number three receiver with a top receiver who can catch 4 more passes for 30 more yards?
If you can make an upgrade with a player who you think has a higher floor of at least 7 points then a play like this is very smart.
But if you think you are upgrading a position player that doesn’t necessarily have that much of a higher floor, then it may be wise to keep the original QB.
This is a good way of looking at your team as a whole to create a better lineup!
Sometimes there are great value plays in the position players who will outperform their salary. On days like this you can pay for that top end QB.
But on days where the value isn’t quite there, it’s always wise to look for that cheaper QB who has a good matchup as opposed to selecting that elite QB with a high price tag and decent match up first.